Identification of Tourism Scenarios in Turkey Based on Futures Study Approach

Gholamreza Jandaghi; Mohammad Reza Fathi; Mohammad Hasan Maleki; Omid Faraji; Nedim Yüzbaşıoğlu

doi:10.6092/issn.2036-5195/9488

Authors

Gholamreza Jandaghi University of Tehran, Qom
Professor, Department of Management and Accounting, College of Farabi,
Mohammad Reza Fathi University of Tehran
Assistant Professor, College of Farabi, University of Tehran, Iran
Mohammad Hasan Maleki University of Qom
Associate Professor, Department of Economics and Management, University of Qom, Qom, Iran
Omid Faraji University of Tehran, Qom
Assistant Professor, Department of Management and Accounting, College of Farabi, University of Tehran, Qom, Iran
Nedim Yüzbaşıoğlu Akdeniz University
Professor, Faculty of Tourism, Akdeniz University, Antalya, Turkey

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.6092/issn.2036-5195/9488

Keywords:

Tourism, Plausible Future, Soft Systems Methodology, MICMAC

Abstract

This study aims to identify the plausible scenarios of tourism in Antalya, Turkey. For this purpose, the drivers and key factors of the research were first identified by reviewing the literature and interviewing Turkish tourism experts. Then these factors were screened using binomial nonparametric test and eight factors were eliminated from the 19 key factors. Two key factors of government policy in the tourism field and value of country currency were selected using cross impact analysis technique in order to write plausible scenarios. Based on these two uncertainties, four scenarios of luxury tourism, cheap tourism, tourism deterioration and unplanned tourism were identified.

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Identification of Tourism Scenarios in Turkey Based on Futures Study Approach

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